Fittjavs
Nacka Iliria
COMPLETEDSweden · Division 2 - Södra Svealand · 9/26/2026, 12:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Fittja · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (10%), 2-1 (10%), 1-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Fittja 1-2 Nacka Iliria
Original prediction
Fittja
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 18:24 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.74 | 32.9% | 45.7% | 12.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.83 | 23.6% | 25.2% | 1.7 pts |
| Away | 2.08 | 43.5% | 29.1% | -14.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
12.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–010%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.1–110%
Predicted outcome
Fittja
Probability
45.7%
Model confidence
45.7%
Fittja has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 3 · avg 0.80/0.60
GF 4 · GA 6 · avg 0.80/1.20