Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Firpo · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Firpo 1-0 Alianza, with an exact score probability of 16%.
Prediction details
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: -| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.78 | 51.5% | 54.9% | 3.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.30 | 27.8% | 25.8% | -1.9 pts |
| Away | 4.41 | 20.8% | 19.3% | -1.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 - · Draw - · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-
Projected Score
Firpo 1–0 Alianza
Exact score probability: 16%
Predicted outcome
Firpo
Probability
54.9%
Model confidence
54.9%
Firpo has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
FirpoLLWLD
GF 6 · GA 9 · avg 1.20/1.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
AlianzaLDWDL
GF 6 · GA 9 · avg 1.20/1.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
FirpoAlianza
54.2Attack42.9
75.0Defence57.1
58.3Form42.9
61.8Power49.1
1.53xG0.68