Fiorenzuolavs
Rovato Vertovese
COMPLETEDItaly · Serie D - Girone B · 10/25/2026, 1:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Fiorenzuola · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Fiorenzuola 2-1 Rovato Vertovese
Original prediction
Fiorenzuola
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 15 October 2026 at 00:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.44 | 36.9% | 38.0% | 1.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.00 | 29.9% | 28.9% | -1.0 pts |
| Away | 2.71 | 33.2% | 33.1% | -0.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.44 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
Fiorenzuola
Probability
38.0%
Model confidence
38.0%
Fiorenzuola has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 2 · GA 4 · avg 0.40/0.80
GF 7 · GA 7 · avg 1.40/1.40