Fiorentinovs
Virtus
COMPLETEDSan-Marino · Campionato · 9/4/2026, 7:15:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Virtus · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Fiorentino 0-1 Virtus
Original prediction
Virtus
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:12 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 8.21 | 11.0% | 36.7% | 25.7 pts |
| Draw | 4.46 | 20.2% | 25.2% | 5.0 pts |
| Away | 1.31 | 68.8% | 38.1% | -30.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.31 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-30.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–09%
Predicted outcome
Virtus
Probability
38.1%
Model confidence
38.1%
Virtus has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
FiorentinoWWLLW
GF 10 · GA 6 · avg 2.00/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
VirtusDWLLW
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
FiorentinoVirtus
66.7Attack0.0
100.0Defence100.0
100.0Form33.3
88.7Power45.3
1.84xG1.12