Fiorentinovs
La Fiorita
COMPLETEDSan-Marino · Campionato · 9/11/2026, 7:15:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
La Fiorita · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (10%), 0-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Fiorentino 1-1 La Fiorita
Original prediction
La Fiorita
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:13 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 5.28 | 17.1% | 34.6% | 17.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.73 | 24.2% | 27.2% | 3.0 pts |
| Away | 1.54 | 58.7% | 38.2% | -20.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.73 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-20.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–010%
- 3.0–010%
Predicted outcome
La Fiorita
Probability
38.2%
Model confidence
38.2%
La Fiorita has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 5 · avg 1.00/1.00
GF 2 · GA 5 · avg 0.40/1.00