Fiorentinovs
Cailungo
COMPLETEDSan-Marino · Campionato · 10/24/2026, 1:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Fiorentino · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-0 (11%), 1-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Fiorentino 1-1 Cailungo
Original prediction
Fiorentino
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 7 October 2026 at 08:46 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.38 | 65.2% | 57.9% | -7.3 pts |
| Draw | 4.32 | 20.9% | 22.9% | 2.0 pts |
| Away | 6.45 | 14.0% | 19.2% | 5.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 3.32 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-7.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–011%
- 3.1–011%
Predicted outcome
Fiorentino
Probability
57.9%
Model confidence
57.9%
Fiorentino has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 6 · avg 1.60/1.20
GF 4 · GA 8 · avg 0.80/1.60