Fiorentina Wvs
Ternana W
COMPLETEDItaly · Serie A Cup Women · 8/30/2026, 6:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Fiorentina W · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Fiorentina W 3-1 Ternana W
Original prediction
Fiorentina W
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 01:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.39 | 64.6% | 54.2% | -10.4 pts |
| Draw | 4.26 | 21.0% | 23.7% | 2.7 pts |
| Away | 6.22 | 14.4% | 22.1% | 7.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.39 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-10.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–09%
Predicted outcome
Fiorentina W
Probability
54.2%
Model confidence
54.2%
Fiorentina W has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 11 · avg 1.20/2.20
GF 4 · GA 9 · avg 1.00/2.25