Fiorentinavs
Como
COMPLETEDItaly · Serie A · 10/18/2026, 1:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Como · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 0-2 (11%), 1-2 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Fiorentina 1-3 Como
Original prediction
Como
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 18 September 2026 at 00:27 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.37 | 28.1% | 23.1% | -4.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.62 | 26.1% | 23.9% | -2.2 pts |
| Away | 2.07 | 45.8% | 53.0% | 7.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.07 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
7.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.0–211%
- 3.1–210%
Predicted outcome
Como
Probability
53.0%
Model confidence
53.0%
Como has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
FiorentinaLDWWL
GF 10 · GA 7 · avg 2.00/1.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
ComoLDLWW
GF 8 · GA 7 · avg 1.60/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
FiorentinaComo
38.9Attack50.0
22.2Defence66.7
22.2Form61.1
30.3Power60.6
0.96xG1.91