Finn Harpsvs
Longford Town
COMPLETEDIreland · First Division · 9/18/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Longford Town · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 0-1 (12%), 0-2 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Finn Harps 0-1 Longford Town
Original prediction
Longford Town
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 00:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.59 | 25.1% | 19.9% | -5.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.45 | 26.1% | 23.1% | -3.0 pts |
| Away | 1.84 | 48.9% | 57.0% | 8.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.84 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
8.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.0–112%
- 3.0–211%
Predicted outcome
Longford Town
Probability
57.0%
Model confidence
57.0%
Longford Town has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 15 · avg 1.60/3.00
GF 6 · GA 11 · avg 1.20/2.20