Finn Harpsvs
Kerry FC
COMPLETEDIreland · First Division · 10/2/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Kerry FC · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-1 (15%), 1-1 (13%), 0-2 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Finn Harps 1-2 Kerry FC
Original prediction
Kerry FC
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 04:33 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.80 | 23.8% | 26.1% | 2.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.54 | 25.5% | 28.5% | 3.0 pts |
| Away | 1.78 | 50.7% | 45.4% | -5.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.78 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-5.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–115%
- 2.1–113%
- 3.0–212%
Predicted outcome
Kerry FC
Probability
45.4%
Model confidence
45.4%
Kerry FC has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 10 · avg 1.60/2.00
GF 5 · GA 5 · avg 1.00/1.00