Finn Harpsvs
Athlone Town
COMPLETEDIreland · First Division · 9/4/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Athlone Town · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Finn Harps 0-1 Athlone Town, with an exact score probability of 16%.
Prediction record
Final result
Finn Harps 0-1 Athlone Town
Original prediction
Athlone Town
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:12 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.03 | 22.4% | 20.1% | -2.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.55 | 25.5% | 25.7% | 0.3 pts |
| Away | 1.74 | 52.1% | 54.2% | 2.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.74 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.1 pts
Projected Score
Finn Harps 0–1 Athlone Town
Exact score probability: 16%
Predicted outcome
Athlone Town
Probability
54.2%
Model confidence
54.2%
Athlone Town has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Finn HarpsLLLLL
GF 5 · GA 21 · avg 1.00/4.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 5/5
Athlone TownWWLWL
GF 9 · GA 7 · avg 1.80/1.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
Finn HarpsAthlone Town
29.9Attack34.5
29.9Defence60.9
25.3Form42.5
31.4Power48.1
0.72xG1.39