Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Belarus · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Finland 0-1 Belarus, with an exact score probability of 18%.
Prediction record
Final result
Finland 0-0 Belarus
Original prediction
Belarus
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 1 September 2026 at 15:54 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 3.50+| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.56 | 59.9% | 32.3% | -27.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.77 | 24.8% | 28.3% | 3.5 pts |
| Away | 6.11 | 15.3% | 39.4% | 24.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.77 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
24.1 pts
Projected Score
Finland 0–1 Belarus
Exact score probability: 18%
Predicted outcome
Belarus
Probability
39.4%
Model confidence
39.4%
Belarus has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
FinlandWLLWL
GF 12 · GA 7 · avg 2.40/1.40
BTTS 1/5O2.5 4/5
BelarusLDWWW
GF 9 · GA 6 · avg 1.80/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
FinlandBelarus
11.1Attack16.7
27.8Defence77.8
0.0Form38.9
18.3Power47.4
0.63xG1.20