Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Finland · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (9%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Finland 2-1 Albania
Original prediction
Finland
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 00:31 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.39 | 39.2% | 37.4% | -1.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.04 | 30.8% | 28.9% | -1.8 pts |
| Away | 3.11 | 30.1% | 33.7% | 3.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.39 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–09%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
Finland
Probability
37.4%
Model confidence
37.4%
Finland has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
FinlandDWLLW
GF 12 · GA 6 · avg 2.40/1.20
BTTS 1/5O2.5 4/5
AlbaniaWWLLL
GF 5 · GA 3 · avg 1.00/0.60
BTTS 0/5O2.5 1/5
FinlandAlbania
100.0Attack83.3
100.0Defence100.0
66.7Form100.0
79.7Power94.8
1.32xG1.26