Finland U21vs
Spain U21
COMPLETEDWorld · UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification · 9/25/2026, 3:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Spain U21 · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Finland U21 2-1 Spain U21
Original prediction
Spain U21
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 16:10 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 5.59 | 16.3% | 16.8% | 0.5 pts |
| Draw | 4.12 | 22.1% | 19.8% | -2.3 pts |
| Away | 1.48 | 61.6% | 63.5% | 1.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–210%
Predicted outcome
Spain U21
Probability
63.5%
Model confidence
63.5%
Spain U21 has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 16 · GA 1 · avg 3.20/0.20
GF 20 · GA 1 · avg 4.00/0.20