Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Fiji · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (13%), 0-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Fiji 0-1 Vanuatu
Original prediction
Fiji
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 21 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.92 | 48.0% | 43.1% | -4.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.59 | 25.6% | 28.1% | 2.5 pts |
| Away | 3.49 | 26.4% | 28.8% | 2.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-4.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–013%
- 3.0–012%
Predicted outcome
Fiji
Probability
43.1%
Model confidence
43.1%
Fiji has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
FijiDLDLL
GF 4 · GA 9 · avg 0.80/1.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
VanuatuDWDWW
GF 9 · GA 5 · avg 1.80/1.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
FijiVanuatu
16.7Attack20.8
33.3Defence50.0
0.0Form37.5
21.5Power39.3
1.31xG0.93