Fijivs
Papua New Guinea
COMPLETEDWorld · Friendlies · 9/27/2026, 7:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Fiji · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Fiji 2-0 Papua New Guinea
Original prediction
Fiji
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 21 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.99 | 46.6% | 40.4% | -6.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.61 | 25.7% | 27.6% | 2.0 pts |
| Away | 3.33 | 27.8% | 32.0% | 4.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.99 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-6.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
Fiji
Probability
40.4%
Model confidence
40.4%
Fiji has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
FijiLDLDL
GF 4 · GA 8 · avg 0.80/1.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
Papua New GuineaLDWWW
GF 7 · GA 4 · avg 1.40/0.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
FijiPapua New Guinea
33.3Attack33.3
44.4Defence33.3
11.1Form0.0
32.9Power23.7
1.44xG1.25