Fijivs
New Caledonia
COMPLETEDWorld · Friendlies · 9/30/2026, 7:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Fiji · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (10%), 1-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Fiji 2-1 New Caledonia
Original prediction
Fiji
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 21 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.69 | 54.4% | 47.8% | -6.6 pts |
| Draw | 4.04 | 22.8% | 25.8% | 3.1 pts |
| Away | 4.03 | 22.8% | 26.4% | 3.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.69 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-6.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.1–010%
Predicted outcome
Fiji
Probability
47.8%
Model confidence
47.8%
Fiji has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
FijiWLDLD
GF 6 · GA 6 · avg 1.20/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
New CaledoniaLWLWL
GF 5 · GA 8 · avg 1.00/1.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
FijiNew Caledonia
41.7Attack33.3
58.3Defence22.2
33.3Form33.3
45.9Power33.8
1.71xG1.06