Figueirensevs
Nação
COMPLETEDBrazil · Copa Santa Catarina · 9/12/2026, 6:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Figueirense · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (10%), 1-1 (8%), 3-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Figueirense 1-0 Nação
Original prediction
Figueirense
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:08 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.33 | 68.0% | 60.3% | -7.7 pts |
| Draw | 4.06 | 22.4% | 21.3% | -1.1 pts |
| Away | 9.43 | 9.6% | 18.4% | 8.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.33 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-7.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–110%
- 2.1–18%
- 3.3–18%
Predicted outcome
Figueirense
Probability
60.3%
Model confidence
60.3%
Figueirense has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00
GF 4 · GA 11 · avg 0.80/2.20