Figueirensevs
Hercílio Luz
COMPLETEDBrazil · Copa Santa Catarina · 10/10/2026, 6:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Figueirense · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Figueirense 1-0 Hercílio Luz
Original prediction
Figueirense
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 11 September 2026 at 00:34 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.03 | 44.4% | 42.8% | -1.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.11 | 28.9% | 28.0% | -0.9 pts |
| Away | 3.38 | 26.7% | 29.2% | 2.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.03 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–08%
Predicted outcome
Figueirense
Probability
42.8%
Model confidence
42.8%
Figueirense has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 3 · avg 1.40/0.60
GF 11 · GA 8 · avg 2.20/1.60