Figueirensevs
Barra
COMPLETEDBrazil · Copa Santa Catarina · 9/5/2026, 6:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Figueirense · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 3-0 (12%), 2-0 (12%), 4-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Figueirense 1-1 Barra
Original prediction
Figueirense
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.34 | 67.2% | 69.6% | 2.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.97 | 22.7% | 18.3% | -4.4 pts |
| Away | 8.97 | 10.1% | 12.1% | 2.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.97 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.3–012%
- 2.2–012%
- 3.4–09%
Predicted outcome
Figueirense
Probability
69.6%
Model confidence
69.6%
Figueirense has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 4 · avg 1.40/0.80
GF 4 · GA 5 · avg 0.80/1.00