Fgura Unitedvs
Santa Lucía
COMPLETEDMalta · Challenge League · 10/17/2026, 5:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Fgura United · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-0 (11%), 2-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Fgura United 0-0 Santa Lucía
Original prediction
Fgura United
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 21 September 2026 at 00:30 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.41 | 36.9% | 47.2% | 10.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.39 | 26.3% | 25.7% | -0.5 pts |
| Away | 2.41 | 36.9% | 27.0% | -9.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.39 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
10.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–011%
- 3.2–011%
Predicted outcome
Fgura United
Probability
47.2%
Model confidence
47.2%
Fgura United has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 2 · avg 2.00/0.40
GF 10 · GA 3 · avg 2.00/0.60