Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
FF Jaro · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: FF Jaro 0-0 Mariehamn, with an exact score probability of 15%.
Prediction record
Final result
FF Jaro 1-1 Mariehamn
Original prediction
FF Jaro
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 17:43 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.22 | 41.7% | 40.8% | -0.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.37 | 27.5% | 28.2% | 0.7 pts |
| Away | 3.00 | 30.8% | 31.1% | 0.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.37 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.9 pts
Projected Score
FF Jaro 0–0 Mariehamn
Exact score probability: 15%
Predicted outcome
FF Jaro
Probability
40.8%
Model confidence
40.8%
FF Jaro has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
FF JaroWDDLL
GF 3 · GA 6 · avg 0.60/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 0/5
MariehamnDLWLW
GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 1.20/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
FF JaroMariehamn
26.9Attack26.9
38.5Defence38.5
25.6Form23.1
33.0Power32.2
1.07xG0.91