Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Millesimo · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-2 (9%), 0-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Fezzanese 0-4 Millesimo
Original prediction
Millesimo
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 15 October 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.37 | 36.9% | 34.3% | -2.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.05 | 28.7% | 28.7% | 0.0 pts |
| Away | 2.54 | 34.4% | 37.0% | 2.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.54 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.0–19%
Predicted outcome
Millesimo
Probability
37.0%
Model confidence
37.0%
Millesimo has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
FezzaneseLLLLW
GF 4 · GA 8 · avg 0.80/1.60
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
MillesimoWLLWL
GF 7 · GA 8 · avg 1.40/1.60
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
FezzaneseMillesimo
0.0Attack50.0
33.3Defence50.0
0.0Form50.0
15.3Power50.0
1.24xG1.42