Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Fezzanese · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Fezzanese 0-2 Gozzano
Original prediction
Fezzanese
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 21 September 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.14 | 41.9% | 39.2% | -2.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.10 | 28.9% | 28.7% | -0.3 pts |
| Away | 3.08 | 29.1% | 32.1% | 3.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
Fezzanese
Probability
39.2%
Model confidence
39.2%
Fezzanese has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
FezzaneseL
GF 2 · GA 5 · avg 2.00/5.00
BTTS 1/1O2.5 1/1
GozzanoL
GF 1 · GA 3 · avg 1.00/3.00
BTTS 1/1O2.5 1/1
FezzaneseGozzano
50.0Attack50.0
50.0Defence50.0
50.0Form50.0
50.0Power50.0
1.46xG1.24