Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Feyenoord · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 3-0 (10%), 3-1 (9%), 4-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Feyenoord 5-0 Utrecht
Original prediction
Feyenoord
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.27 | 73.8% | 74.3% | 0.5 pts |
| Draw | 5.97 | 15.7% | 14.5% | -1.2 pts |
| Away | 9.00 | 10.4% | 11.2% | 0.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.27 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
0.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.3–010%
- 2.3–19%
- 3.4–09%
Predicted outcome
Feyenoord
Probability
74.3%
Model confidence
74.3%
Feyenoord has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
FeyenoordWLWDW
GF 18 · GA 10 · avg 3.60/2.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 5/5
UtrechtWDLDL
GF 10 · GA 17 · avg 2.00/3.40
BTTS 5/5O2.5 5/5
FeyenoordUtrecht
83.3Attack50.0
72.2Defence0.0
66.7Form22.2
70.6Power27.4
3.73xG0.94