Feyenoordvs
AZ Alkmaar
COMPLETEDNetherlands · Eredivisie · 10/10/2026, 4:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Feyenoord · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Feyenoord 2-0 AZ Alkmaar
Original prediction
Feyenoord
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 10 September 2026 at 00:05 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.79 | 52.6% | 44.1% | -8.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.99 | 23.6% | 23.7% | 0.2 pts |
| Away | 3.94 | 23.9% | 32.2% | 8.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.79 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-8.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Feyenoord
Probability
44.1%
Model confidence
44.1%
Feyenoord has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 18 · GA 8 · avg 3.60/1.60
GF 10 · GA 6 · avg 2.00/1.20