Ferroviáriavs
Paysandu
COMPLETEDBrazil · Serie C · 9/13/2026, 7:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Ferroviária · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Ferroviária 1-0 Paysandu, with an exact score probability of 16%.
Prediction record
Final result
Ferroviária 1-0 Paysandu
Original prediction
Ferroviária
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 20:35 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.75 | 51.3% | 43.7% | -7.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.43 | 26.2% | 29.4% | 3.3 pts |
| Away | 3.99 | 22.5% | 26.9% | 4.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.75 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-7.7 pts
Projected Score
Ferroviária 1–0 Paysandu
Exact score probability: 16%
Predicted outcome
Ferroviária
Probability
43.7%
Model confidence
43.7%
Ferroviária has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
FerroviáriaDWLWD
GF 10 · GA 6 · avg 2.00/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
PaysanduLLWLW
GF 4 · GA 8 · avg 0.80/1.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
FerroviáriaPaysandu
41.7Attack45.0
70.0Defence51.7
51.7Form48.3
56.0Power50.3
1.31xG0.73