Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Quilmes 2 · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Ferro 2 are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (WWLDL), averaging 1.00 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Quilmes 2 are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WDWLW), averaging 1.00 scored and 0.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Quilmes 2 hold a 15.1-point power-rating edge (45.5 v 60.6). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 24.3% in the Reserve League, while Quilmes 2 holds the strongest overall chance at 42% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 26% BTTS chance and 18% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Quilmes 2
Probability
41.5%
Model confidence
24.3%
Quilmes 2 has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 7 · avg 1.00/1.40
GF 5 · GA 3 · avg 1.00/0.60