Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Fernwald · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Fernwald are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (LDWWD), averaging 1.00 scored and 0.60 conceded, while Wolfhagen are 1W-0D-4L in their last 5 (LLLLW), averaging 1.40 scored and 2.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Fernwald hold a 7.2-point power-rating edge (48.8 v 41.6). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 50.5% in the Oberliga - Hessen, while Fernwald holds the strongest overall chance at 51% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 64% BTTS chance and 64% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Fernwald
Probability
50.5%
Model confidence
50.5%
Fernwald has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 3 · avg 1.00/0.60
GF 7 · GA 11 · avg 1.40/2.20