Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Fernwald · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Fernwald are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (LDDWL), averaging 1.00 scored and 2.20 conceded, while Kassel 2 are 1W-1D-2L in their last 4 (DLLW), averaging 0.75 scored and 1.25 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 9 games and 2 passed 2.5 goals, and Fernwald hold an 8.0-point power-rating edge (48.8 v 40.9). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 44.1% in the Oberliga - Hessen, while Fernwald holds the strongest overall chance at 44% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 58% BTTS chance and 54% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Fernwald
Probability
44.1%
Model confidence
44.1%
Fernwald has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 11 · avg 1.00/2.20
GF 3 · GA 5 · avg 0.75/1.25