Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Fernwald · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 2-1
Fernwald are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (LWWLL), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.80 conceded, while Kassel are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (LWLDW), averaging 1.80 scored and 2.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 8 passed 2.5 goals, and Fernwald hold a 21.2-point power-rating edge (48.8 v 27.6). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 53.3% in the Oberliga - Hessen, while Fernwald holds the strongest overall chance at 53% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 67% BTTS chance and 69% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Fernwald
Probability
53.3%
Model confidence
53.3%
Fernwald has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 9 · avg 1.60/1.80
GF 9 · GA 12 · avg 1.80/2.40