Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Fernwald · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 2-1
Fernwald are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WWLDW), averaging 1.80 scored and 0.60 conceded, while Hornau are 0W-1D-4L in their last 5 (DLLLL), averaging 1.00 scored and 3.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and Fernwald hold a 16.1-point power-rating edge (48.8 v 32.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 64.3% in the Oberliga - Hessen, while Fernwald holds the strongest overall chance at 64% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 70% BTTS chance and 78% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Fernwald
Probability
64.3%
Model confidence
64.3%
Fernwald has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 3 · avg 1.80/0.60
GF 5 · GA 16 · avg 1.00/3.20