Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Fernwald · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 2-1
Fernwald are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (WLDWL), averaging 2.00 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Hanau 93 are 0W-0D-5L in their last 5 (LLLLL), averaging 0.40 scored and 2.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and Fernwald hold a 10.2-point power-rating edge (48.8 v 38.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 56.8% in the Oberliga - Hessen, while Fernwald holds the strongest overall chance at 57% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 72% BTTS chance and 76% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Fernwald
Probability
56.8%
Model confidence
56.8%
Fernwald has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 5 · avg 2.00/1.00
GF 2 · GA 11 · avg 0.40/2.20