Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Fernwald · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 2-1
Fernwald are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (WWDDL), averaging 1.80 scored and 1.60 conceded, while Hanau 93 are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (DLDLW), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Fernwald hold a 10.2-point power-rating edge (48.8 v 38.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 56.8% in the Oberliga - Hessen, while Fernwald holds the strongest overall chance at 57% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 72% BTTS chance and 76% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Fernwald
Probability
56.8%
Model confidence
56.8%
Fernwald has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 8 · avg 1.80/1.60
GF 7 · GA 9 · avg 1.40/1.80