Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Fernwald · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Fernwald are 1W-1D-2L in their last 4 (DLWL), averaging 1.00 scored and 4.25 conceded, while FC Gießen are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (LWWWL), averaging 2.60 scored and 0.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 9 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Fernwald hold a 9.7-point power-rating edge (48.8 v 39.1). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 47.6% in the Oberliga - Hessen, while Fernwald holds the strongest overall chance at 48% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 66% BTTS chance and 66% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Fernwald
Probability
47.6%
Model confidence
47.6%
Fernwald has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 17 · avg 1.00/4.25
GF 13 · GA 4 · avg 2.60/0.80