Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Fernwald · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Fernwald are 4W-1D-0L in their last 5 (DWWWW), averaging 3.00 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Baunatal are 1W-3D-1L in their last 5 (DWDLD), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Fernwald hold a 19.4-point power-rating edge (48.8 v 29.5). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 49.5% in the Oberliga - Hessen, while Fernwald holds the strongest overall chance at 49% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 61% BTTS chance and 60% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Fernwald
Probability
49.5%
Model confidence
49.5%
Fernwald has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 15 · GA 6 · avg 3.00/1.20
GF 6 · GA 6 · avg 1.20/1.20