Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Fernwald · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Fernwald are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WWLWD), averaging 1.40 scored and 0.80 conceded, while Baunatal are 4W-0D-1L in their last 5 (LWWWW), averaging 1.80 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Fernwald hold a 19.4-point power-rating edge (48.8 v 29.5). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 49.5% in the Oberliga - Hessen, while Fernwald holds the strongest overall chance at 49% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 61% BTTS chance and 60% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Fernwald
Probability
49.5%
Model confidence
49.5%
Fernwald has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 4 · avg 1.40/0.80
GF 9 · GA 5 · avg 1.80/1.00