Fernando De La Moravs
Libertad Asuncion
COMPLETEDParaguay · Copa Paraguay · 9/23/2026, 9:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Libertad Asuncion · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Fernando De La Mora 1-1 Libertad Asuncion
Original prediction
Libertad Asuncion
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 13 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 11.34 | 8.0% | 36.8% | 28.8 pts |
| Draw | 5.27 | 17.1% | 24.3% | 7.1 pts |
| Away | 1.21 | 74.9% | 39.0% | -35.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 4.27 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-35.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–09%
Predicted outcome
Libertad Asuncion
Probability
39.0%
Model confidence
39.0%
Libertad Asuncion has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 1.20/1.00
GF 8 · GA 7 · avg 1.60/1.40