Fenixvs
Uruguay Montevideo
COMPLETEDUruguay · Segunda División · 10/4/2026, 4:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Fenix · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Fenix 1-0 Uruguay Montevideo, with an exact score probability of 16%.
Prediction record
Final result
Fenix 2-0 Uruguay Montevideo
Original prediction
Fenix
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 September 2026 at 16:14 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.60 | 56.9% | 47.9% | -9.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.57 | 25.5% | 28.5% | 3.0 pts |
| Away | 5.19 | 17.5% | 23.6% | 6.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.60 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-9.1 pts
Projected Score
Fenix 1–0 Uruguay Montevideo
Exact score probability: 16%
Predicted outcome
Fenix
Probability
47.9%
Model confidence
47.9%
Fenix has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
FenixLLDWL
GF 7 · GA 9 · avg 1.40/1.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
Uruguay MontevideoLLDLD
GF 3 · GA 7 · avg 0.60/1.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
FenixUruguay Montevideo
48.1Attack33.3
61.7Defence56.4
49.4Form33.3
54.6Power43.2
1.40xG0.67