Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Fenix · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-0
Fenix are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (DLWWW), averaging 1.60 scored and 0.80 conceded, while Rentistas are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (LWDDL), averaging 1.00 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Fenix hold a 5.2-point power-rating edge (58.1 v 52.9). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 16.2% in the Segunda División, while Fenix holds the strongest overall chance at 46% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 37% BTTS chance and 30% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Fenix
Probability
46.0%
Model confidence
16.2%
Fenix has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 4 · avg 1.60/0.80
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20