Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Fenix · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Fenix 1-0 Paysandu, with an exact score probability of 16%.
Prediction record
Final result
Fenix 0-1 Paysandu
Original prediction
Fenix
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 7 October 2026 at 22:07 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.40 | 65.4% | 56.4% | -9.0 pts |
| Draw | 4.09 | 22.3% | 25.2% | 2.9 pts |
| Away | 7.41 | 12.3% | 18.4% | 6.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-9.0 pts
Projected Score
Fenix 1–0 Paysandu
Exact score probability: 16%
Predicted outcome
Fenix
Probability
56.4%
Model confidence
56.4%
Fenix has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
FenixDWLLD
GF 7 · GA 7 · avg 1.40/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
PaysanduWLDDL
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
FenixPaysandu
47.1Attack38.1
64.4Defence57.1
50.6Form38.1
55.5Power46.9
1.33xG0.72