Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Fenix · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-0
Fenix are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (WDDLL), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Cerrito are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (WDWLL), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Fenix hold a 4.8-point power-rating edge (58.1 v 53.2). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 15.3% in the Segunda División, while Fenix holds the strongest overall chance at 48% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 40% BTTS chance and 34% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Fenix
Probability
48.4%
Model confidence
15.3%
Fenix has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40
GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 1.20/1.00