Fenerbahçevs
Sturm Graz
COMPLETEDWorld · UEFA Champions League · 8/5/2026, 6:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Fenerbahçe are 3W-2D-0L in their last 5 (DWDWW), averaging 2.20 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Sturm Graz are 4W-1D-0L in their last 5 (DWWWW), averaging 2.40 scored and 0.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Fenerbahçe hold a 5.0-point power-rating edge (72.8 v 67.8). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely result in the UEFA Champions League, favouring a draw with 13.7% confidence, a 55% BTTS chance and 49% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
28.7%
Model confidence
13.7%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 5 · avg 2.20/1.00
GF 12 · GA 1 · avg 2.40/0.20