Fenerbahçevs
Lyon
SCHEDULEDWorld · UEFA Champions League · 8/18/2026, 7:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Fenerbahçe · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Fenerbahçe are 3W-2D-0L in their last 5 (WWDWD), averaging 1.60 scored and 0.80 conceded, while Lyon are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (WLLLW), averaging 1.80 scored and 2.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Fenerbahçe hold a 15.9-point power-rating edge (75.3 v 59.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 13.6% in the UEFA Champions League, while Fenerbahçe holds the strongest overall chance at 44% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 53% BTTS chance and 48% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Fenerbahçe
Probability
43.9%
Model confidence
13.6%
Fenerbahçe has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 4 · avg 1.60/0.80
GF 9 · GA 10 · avg 1.80/2.00