Fenerbahçevs
Beşiktaş
COMPLETEDTurkey · Süper Lig · 9/5/2026, 5:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Fenerbahçe · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Fenerbahçe 1-2 Beşiktaş
Original prediction
Fenerbahçe
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:24 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.94 | 48.3% | 41.1% | -7.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.57 | 26.2% | 26.2% | 0.0 pts |
| Away | 3.69 | 25.4% | 32.7% | 7.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-7.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Fenerbahçe
Probability
41.1%
Model confidence
41.1%
Fenerbahçe has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 6 · avg 2.00/1.20
GF 10 · GA 4 · avg 2.00/0.80