Fenerbahçevs
AS Roma
COMPLETEDWorld · UEFA Champions League · 9/10/2026, 4:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Fenerbahçe · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (11%), 2-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Fenerbahçe 1-1 AS Roma
Original prediction
Fenerbahçe
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 18:17 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.33 | 28.6% | 40.2% | 11.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.54 | 26.9% | 27.8% | 0.9 pts |
| Away | 2.14 | 44.5% | 32.0% | -12.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.54 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
11.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–011%
- 3.2–010%
Predicted outcome
Fenerbahçe
Probability
40.2%
Model confidence
40.2%
Fenerbahçe has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 6 · avg 2.00/1.20
GF 12 · GA 6 · avg 2.40/1.20