Fenerbahçevs
Alanyaspor
COMPLETEDTurkey · Süper Lig · 10/17/2026, 4:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Fenerbahçe · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-0 (14%), 1-1 (13%), 2-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Fenerbahçe 3-0 Alanyaspor
Original prediction
Fenerbahçe
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 17 September 2026 at 00:28 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.27 | 73.2% | 60.1% | -13.1 pts |
| Draw | 5.57 | 16.7% | 22.5% | 5.8 pts |
| Away | 9.29 | 10.0% | 17.4% | 7.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.27 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-13.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–014%
- 2.1–113%
- 3.2–012%
Predicted outcome
Fenerbahçe
Probability
60.1%
Model confidence
60.1%
Fenerbahçe has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 13 · GA 6 · avg 2.60/1.20
GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 1.20/1.00