Fencibles UnitedvsNelson Suburbs

Fencibles United are 4W-0D-1L in their last 5 (WWLWW), averaging 2.40 scored and 1.60 conceded, while Nelson Suburbs are 4W-0D-1L in their last 5 (WWLWW), averaging 2.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 8 passed 2.5 goals, and Nelson Suburbs hold a 2.2-point power-rating edge (89.7 v 91.8). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-2 the most likely exact scoreline at 7.4% in the Chatham Cup, while Fencibles United holds the strongest overall chance at 45% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 80% BTTS chance and 82% for over 2.5 goals.