Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Feirense are 0W-0D-2L in their last 2 (LL), averaging 1.50 scored and 3.50 conceded, while Penafiel are 1W-1D-1L in their last 3 (WLD), averaging 1.67 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 5 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Penafiel hold a 4.3-point power-rating edge (41.2 v 45.5). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 43.3% in the Segunda Liga, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 43% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 30% BTTS chance and 20% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
43.3%
Model confidence
43.3%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 7 · avg 1.50/3.50
GF 5 · GA 3 · avg 1.67/1.00