Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Benfica B · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Feirense 0-1 Benfica B, with an exact score probability of 20%.
Prediction record
Final result
Feirense 0-0 Benfica B
Original prediction
Benfica B
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 3 October 2026 at 06:40 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.56 | 35.7% | 24.0% | -11.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.16 | 28.9% | 29.4% | 0.5 pts |
| Away | 2.58 | 35.4% | 46.6% | 11.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.16 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
11.2 pts
Projected Score
Feirense 0–1 Benfica B
Exact score probability: 20%
Predicted outcome
Benfica B
Probability
46.6%
Model confidence
46.6%
Benfica B has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
FeirenseLLLLL
GF 2 · GA 9 · avg 0.40/1.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
Benfica BWWLLD
GF 5 · GA 4 · avg 1.00/0.80
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
FeirenseBenfica B
9.5Attack38.1
52.4Defence76.2
4.8Form61.9
26.1Power60.3
0.55xG1.14